March Madness 2017 Ncaa Tournament Bracket Projections Update

We’re updating the Field of 68 every day this week — this update is through Friday’s games — because that’s what you demand. As always, we’ll trying to give you a look at why teams are projected at their current seed line. Our goal is to give you the information that will be used by the selection committee: a mix of statistics and other relevant facts for every single at-large team and every single team even remotely on the bubble. 

MORE: Print your March Madness bracket

Note: Automatic bids (noted in parenthesis) are given to teams that have clinched automatic bids (*) or to the highest seed still alive in the conference tournament. Note, part 2: All RPI numbers are from CBSSports.com and all Pomeroy numbers are from KenPom.com (duh). 

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 1 seeds

Kansas, Villanova (Big East), North Carolina, *Gonzaga (WCC)

Villanova (30-3): Pom/RPI: 2/1. vs. RPI top 25: 5-2. vs. RPI top 100: 16-3 Resume peak: Elite wins away from home (Purdue, Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, Wake Forest). 16 top 100 RPI wins (19 by Pom). Resume valley: Nothing, really. Swept by really good Butler team. Kansas (28-4): Pom/RPI: 10/2. vs. RPI top 25: 6-2. vs. RPI top 100: 15-4 Resume peak: Elite SOS, 15 top 100 RPI wins (20 by Pom). Beat Duke, Kentucky in non-con away from home. Resume valley: Nothing, really. “Worst” loss was to Indiana, which plunged but was full strength in November. Loss to bubble-team TCU in Big 12 Tournament*Gonzaga (32-1): Pom/RPI: 1/8. vs. RPI top 25: 6-0. vs. RPI top 100: 12-1 Resume peak: 5-0 vs. RPI top 25. Away-from-home non-con wins vs. Arizona, Florida, Iowa State. Beat a very good Saint Mary’s team three times, by double-digits all three times. Resume valley: Home loss to BYU team not in the at-large picture. Weak conference means not as many top 100 wins as other No. 1 seed contenders North Carolina (27-7): Pom/RPI: 3/4. vs. RPI top 25: 5-4. vs. RPI top 100: 17-6 Resume peak: 11 RPI/Pom top 50 wins. Double-digit wins vs. Louisville, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Miami. Resume valley: Not much. Just 3-5 vs. top 100 teams on the road.

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 2 seeds

Oregon (Pac-12), Arizona, Kentucky (SEC), Duke

Oregon (29-4): Pom/RPI: 16/6. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 15-3 Resume peak: Crushed elite Arizona team. Only two full-strength losses. Resume valley: Best non-con win just Tennessee. Only four RPI top 50 wins. Full-strength loss at Colorado; loss to Georgetown (w/ Dillon Brooks limited)Arizona (29-4): Pom/RPI: 21/3. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 13-4 Resume peak: Only two full-strength losses. Elite road win at UCLA. Resume valley: Not much. Non-con SOS outside top 100 (Pom). Hard to see a 1 seed with 1-4 record vs. RPI top 25, but path to Pac-12 Tournament title include W vs. UCLA, and will play Oregon for title. Kentucky (27-5): Pom/RPI: 5/5. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 16-5 Resume peak: Beat current No. 1 seed UNC on neutral court. Solid non-con SOS (top 60 Pom). Four of UK’s five losses are to teams projected on the 1-2-3 seed lines. Resume valley: Only two RPI/Pom top 25 wins. Loss at TennesseeDuke (26-8): Pom/RPI: 12/9. vs. RPI top 25: 7-4. vs. RPI top 100: 15-7 Resume peak: Elite wins away from home (at Virginia, Notre Dame, Florida, plus Louisville neutral). Resume valley: Home loss to N.C. State (RPI 136). Just 3-6 in ACC road games.

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 3 seeds

UCLA, Louisville, Baylor, Florida State

UCLA (29-4): Pom/RPI: 17/15. vs. RPI top 25: 3-3. vs. RPI top 100: 11-4 Resume peak: Elite wins at Kentucky, vs. Oregon, at Arizona. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (289 Pom) is by far the worst of any top-three seed contenders.Louisville (24-8): Pom/RPI: 6/7. vs. RPI top 25: 4-7. vs. RPI top 100: 13-8 Resume peak: Beat Kentucky/Purdue/Wichita State/full-strength Indiana in non-con. No mediocre losses — “worst” is at bubble team Wake Forest. Resume valley: “Only” 4-6 vs. RPI top 25 could be determining factor keeping UL from No. 1 seed (but not a 2 seed).Baylor (25-7): Pom/RPI: 11/11. vs. RPI top 25: 5-4. vs. RPI top 100: 14-6 Resume peak: Elite non-con wins (Louisville, Oregon, VCU, Xavier, Michigan State). Resume valley: Not much. Slumped late. Losses to bubble teams Texas Tech, Kansas State (twice).Florida State (25-8): Pom/RPI: 19/13. vs. RPI top 25: 6-4. vs. RPI top 100: 16-6 Resume peak: Only one other team (Duke) has more than FSU’s six RPI top 25 wins. Road win at Virginia. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (250-plus Pom), just 3-6 on the road in ACC

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 4 seeds

West Virginia (Big 12), Notre Dame (ACC), Butler, Florida

West Virginia (26-7): Pom/RPI: 4/23. vs. RPI top 25: 5-2. vs. RPI top 100: 13-4 Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Kansas, Baylor, at Virginia, at Oklahoma State. Resume valley: Inexcusable non-con SOS (330-plus Pom). Losses to Temple, Oklahoma.Notre Dame (25-8): Pom/RPI: 25/21. vs. RPI top 25: 4-7. vs. RPI top 100: 13-7 Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Louisville, Florida State, Virginia (neutral). Road wins at Virginia Tech, Miami and Pittsburgh. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (270-plus Pom); only one non-con win against a team even on the bubble (Northwestern, neutral)Butler (23-8): Pom/RPI: 26/14. vs. RPI top 25: 4-2. vs. RPI top 100: 16-5 Resume peak: Swept Villanova and Marquette. Non-con wins vs. Arizona, Indiana, Cincinnati, Northwestern. Resume valley: Head-scratching losses to Indiana State, St. John’sFlorida (24-8): Pom/RPI: 8/10. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 15-8 Resume peak: Elite non-con SOS (top 15 Pom), computer numbers. Crushed Kentucky at home. Resume valley: Only one RPI/Pom top 25 win. Lost three times to bubble team Vanderbilt.

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 5 seeds

Purdue, Minnesota, SMU (AAC), Cincinnati

Purdue (25-7): Pom/RPI: 14/20. vs. RPI top 25: 1-3. vs. RPI top 100: 13-6 Resume peak: Wins away from home vs. Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, Indiana. Resume valley: Lack of elite wins, relatively speaking (mediocre Big Ten didn’t help). Bad non-con SOS (215-plus Pom)SMU (28-4): Pom/RPI: 15/17. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 7-4 Resume peak: Lots and lots of wins, only a couple losses. Resume valley: Only one of those wins came against a team in the RPI top 50.Cincinnati (28-4): Pom/RPI: 18/12. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 6-4 Resume peak: Non-con wins at Iowa State, vs. Xavier (full-strength Xavier). Resume valley: Serious lack of top 100 wins puts Cincy’s ceiling at a 4-seedMinnesota (24-8): Pom/RPI: 34/19. vs. RPI top 25: 1-1. vs. RPI top 100: 12-7 Resume peak: Excellent Big 10 road wins at Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern. Resume valley: Gophers’ resume lacks “pop” to get into top three seeds, but really, this is a pretty solid resume.  

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 6 seeds

Iowa State, Virginia, Wisconsin (Big Ten), Saint Mary’s

Iowa State (22-10): Pom/RPI: 20/24. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 10-9 Resume peak: Cyclones in great shape, with wins at Kansas, vs. Baylor, at Oklahoma State. Resume valley: Losses at teams outside the bubble (Texas, Iowa)Virginia (22-10): Pom/RPI: 7/18. vs. RPI top 25: 4-6. vs. RPI top 100: 14-10 Resume peak: Swept Louisville. Top-10 overall SOS (Pom). Road wins at Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson, California. Resume valley: Nothing glaring. Stretch where Cavs lost six of eight (including by 24 at UNC)Wisconsin (24-8): Pom/RPI: 23/35. vs. RPI top 25: 2-3. vs. RPI top 100: 12-8 Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. Syracuse, Marquette. Swept Minnesota. Resume valley: Resume is pretty thin, built mostly on wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 50. Lost five of last seven heading into Big Ten tournament. Saint Mary’s (28-4): Pom/RPI: 13/16. vs. RPI top 25: 0-3. vs. RPI top 100: 7-4 Resume peak: Excellent road win at Dayton. Shiny record. Beat BYU three times, which looks better after BYU beat Gonzaga. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (Pom 275-plus), swept by Gonzaga in regular season and WCC tournament.

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 7 seeds

Creighton, Maryland, Michigan, Dayton 

Creighton (25-8): Pom/RPI: 27/25. vs. RPI top 25: 2-2. vs. RPI top 100: 10-7 Resume peak: Swept Butler (including road win after Mo Watson, Jr’s season-ending injury). Beat Wisconsin in November. Big East Tournament wins vs. Providence, Xavier. Resume valley: Creighton was 18-1 before Watson got hurt; Bluejays are just 6-7 without Watson, and four of those Ws were vs. DePaul (twice), St. John’s, GeorgetownMaryland (24-8): Pom/RPI: 44/30. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 14-6 Resume peak: Shiny record. Road wins at Minnesota, Northwestern. Resume valley: Weak Big Ten hurt chances to get elite wins. Four losses to teams on bubble fringe (vs. Iowa) or beyond (vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Pittsburgh). Michigan (22-11): Pom/RPI: 24/38. vs. RPI top 25: 3-2. vs. RPI top 100: 11-11 Resume peak: Big Ten wins vs. Wisconsin, Purdue wrapped up bid. Beat SMU, Marquette in non-con. Zero losses outside top 80 Pom/RPI. Resume valley: Just 3-8 in true road gamesDayton (24-7): Pom/RPI: 37/26. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 12-4 Resume peak: Solid non-con SOS (top 80 Pom) includes wins vs. Vandy, Alabama, East Tennessee State. Resume valley: Lack of “signature” win; 10 top 100 wins vs. teams ranked 40-100.

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 8 seeds

Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Miami, Virginia Tech

Oklahoma State (20-12): Pom/RPI: 22/41. vs. RPI top 25: 1-9. vs. RPI top 100: 6-11 Resume peak: Road wins at West Virginia, Wichita State (non-con), Texas Tech, Kansas State, TCU. Only one loss to team outside the bubble (at Texas). Resume valley: Just 1-7 vs. Big 12’s best teams (Kansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State) Northwestern (23-10): Pom/RPI: 35/48. vs. RPI top 25: 0-5. vs. RPI top 100: 8-10 Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. Dayton, Wake Forest. Beat Wisconsin on road. Resume valley: Struggled down the stretch (lost six of nine in regular season). Swept by Illinois. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 240-plus).Miami (21-11): Pom/RPI: 33/42. vs. RPI top 25: 3-8. vs. RPI top 100: 7-11 Resume peak: In ACC play, won at Virginia, beat UNC and Duke at home. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (275-plus Pom); “best” non-con win was Stanford. Just 3-6 on road in ACCVirginia Tech (22-10): Pom/RPI: 43/46. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 11-9 Resume peak: Home wins vs. Duke, Virginia, Miami. Road wins at Michigan, Clemson, Pitt. Resume valley: Awful non-con SOS (Pom 335-plus). 26-point loss at N.C. State

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 9 seeds

*Wichita State (MVC), Arkansas, VCU (A-10), Seton Hall

Wichita State (30-4): Pom/RPI: 9/29. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 3-4 Resume peak: Look at that Pomeroy number. In current 15-game winning streak, only one win by fewer than 15 points, including two blowouts of MVC’s second-best team, Illinois State (by 41 and 20 points). Resume valley: Complete lack of elite wins. Best are Illinois State (twice), at Colorado State and OklahomaArkansas (24-8): Pom/RPI: 40/28. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 11-6 Resume peak: Wins at South Carolina, Vandy. Resume valley: Overall bland resume includes a stinker: Loss at Missouri (RPI 254).VCU (25-7): Pom/RPI: 48/22. vs. RPI top 25: 0-1. vs. RPI top 100: 8-5 Resume peak: Beat Dayton at home. Non-con wins vs. Princeton, Middle Tennessee and UNC Asheville (all either won their conference or tied for lead). Resume valley: Lack of top 50 wins. Loss at Fordham.Seton Hall (21-11): Pom/RPI: 53/45. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 9-9 Resume peak: Non-con wins vs. South Carolina, California. Home Big East wins vs. Marquette, Xavier, Creighton. Win at Butler probably clinched at-large bid. Resume valley: Losses to St. John’s, Stanford. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 215-plus).

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 10 seeds

Xavier, South Carolina, Marquette, Vanderbilt

Xavier (21-13): Pom/RPI: 38/34. vs. RPI top 25: 2-8. vs. RPI top 100: 8-13 Resume peak: Huge Big East Tournament win vs. Butler. Excellent non-con SOS (top 40 Pom). Non-con wins vs. Clemson, Wake Forest. Resume valley: Just 6-6 since Edmund Sumner was lost for season with injury (though Trevon Bluiett was out for two of those), with three of those six wins vs. DePaul. South Carolina (22-10): Pom/RPI: 32/44. vs. RPI top 25: 1-2. vs. RPI top 100: 11-9 Resume peak: Beat Michigan, Syracuse in non-con. Beat Florida in SEC play. Resume valley: Struggled down the stretch, with only three wins (two vs. Mississippi State) in last nine games.Marquette (19-12): Pom/RPI: 29/59. vs. RPI top 25: 3-3. vs. RPI top 100: 9-10 Resume peak: Beat No. 1 seed Villanova at home, Georgia on road. Swept Xavier (but after Sumner injury) and swept Creighton (but after the Watson injury). Resume valley: Shaky RPI number, as you see. Just 3-6 on road in Big East play. Vanderbilt (19-14): Pom/RPI: 31/33. vs. RPI top 25: 4-4. vs. RPI top 100: 11-13 Resume peak: Swept Florida, home and road and in SEC Tournament. Home wins vs. Iowa State, South Carolina. Eleven RPI/Pom top 100 wins. Strong computer numbers and non-con SOS (top 40 Pom). Resume valley: Lots of losses. Twenty-point loss at Missouri (RPI 254) wasn’t pretty. 

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 11 seeds

Michigan State, Wake Forest, Providence, USC, Middle Tennessee (C-USA)

Michigan State (19-14): Pom/RPI: 42/50. vs. RPI top 25: 2-7. vs. RPI top 100: 9-12 Resume peak: Strong non-con SOS (top 60 Pom). Swept Minnesota. Beat Wichita State, Wisconsin, Northwestern. Resume valley: Losses to Northeastern, Penn State, Ohio StateWake Forest (19-13): Pom/RPI: 30/39. vs. RPI top 25: 1-7. vs. RPI top 100: 8-13 Resume peak: HUGE wins to close regular season, vs. Louisville and at Virginia Tech. Strong non-con SOS (top 50 Pom). Beat Miami. Solid non-con wins vs. good mid-major teams Charleston, Bucknell. Resume valley: Just 1-7 vs. RPI top 25. Swept by Clemson. Just 3-6 on road in ACC.Southern California (24-9): Pom/RPI: 61/43. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 5-8 Resume peak: Home wins vs. UCLA, SMU. Resume valley: Those are the only two wins vs. teams even remotely connected to the bubble. Loss at Arizona State (Pom 130). Bad non-con SOS (Pom 250-plus)Providence (20-12): Pom/RPI: 56/57. vs. RPI top 25: 2-6. vs. RPI top 100: 8-9 Resume peak: Six-game winning streak to end season included four wins vs. at-large teams (vs. Butler, vs. Xavier, at Creighton, vs. Marquette). Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (275-plus), with best win vs. bubble Rhode Island. Also, losses to DePaul, Boston College, St. John’s

NCAA Tournament projection: No. 12 seeds

Rhode Island, Kansas State, *UNC Wilmington (CAA), UT Arlington (Sun Belt), Nevada (MWC)

Rhode Island (22-9): Pom/RPI: 52/40. vs. RPI top 25: 2-1. vs. RPI top 100: 7-7 Resume peak: Neutral-court win vs. Cincinnati. Beat VCU, Belmont at home. Resume valley: Home losses to Fordham, La Salle among five to teams on wrong side of NCAA pictureKansas State (20-13): Pom/RPI: 28/58. vs. RPI top 25: 3-7. vs. RPI top 100: 6-11 Resume peak: Elite wins at Baylor, vs. Baylor (neutral, in Big 12 Tournament), vs. West Virginia, at Oklahoma State. Resume valley: Horrid non-con SOS (Pom 300-plus), with only one non-con win (Colorado State) vs. top 150 team. 30-point loss at Big 12’s last-place team, Oklahoma 

No. 13 seeds: Vermont (America East), Princeton (Ivy), *East Tennessee State (SoCon), Akron (Mid-American)No. 14 seeds: *Bucknell (Patriot), *Winthrop (Big South), *Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), CSU Bakersfield (WAC) No. 15 seeds: *Iona (Metro Atlantic), *Northern Kentucky (Horizon), UC Irvine (Big West), Texas Southern (Southwestern) No. 16 seeds: North Dakota (Big Sky), North Carolina Central (Mid-Eastern), New Orleans (Southland), *Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast) *Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley), *South Dakota State (Summit)

Bubble boys 

California (21-12): Pom/RPI: 58/55. vs. RPI top 25: 0-7. vs. RPI top 100: 5-11 Resume peak: Best Ws are Princeton, Southern California. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS (Pom 220-plus). Zero wins vs. at-large locks. Finished regular season with five losses in six games (only win vs. 5-26 Oregon State)Illinois (18-14): Pom/RPI: 71/63. vs. RPI top 25: 1-4. vs. RPI top 100: 10-11 Resume peak: Swept Northwestern. Wins vs. Michigan, VCU, Michigan State among 10 RPI top 100 wins. Resume valley: Swept by Penn State. Worst loss of the year in regular-season finale, at Rutgers (Pom 131)Syracuse (18-14): Pom/RPI: 50/85. vs. RPI top 25: 3-4. vs. RPI top 100: 8-9 Resume peak: Elite wins vs. Duke, Florida State and Virginia. Resume valley: Bad non-con SOS. Worst RPI to ever get an at-large was 71 (ironically, Syracuse last year) and you see the Orange’s RPI now.Illinois State (27-6): Pom/RPI: 51/32. vs. RPI top 25: 0-0. vs. RPI top 100: 2-4 Resume peak: Beat Wichita State. Shiny record. No. 1 seed in Missouri Valley Tournament. Resume valley: Wichita State is the only decent win, but also lost to Shockers twice by 20-plus points. Losses to Murray State (RPI 230), split with Tulsa (RPI 129). Georgia (19-14): Pom/RPI: 57/52. vs. RPI top 25: 0-6. vs. RPI top 100: 7-13 Resume peak: Solid non-con SOS (Pom 43). Played well on the road vs. SEC’s best — lost in OT at both Florida and Kentucky, by two points at South Carolina. Resume valley: Zero wins vs. at-large locks; best Ws are against Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, TennesseeTCU (19-15): Pom/RPI: 39/69. vs. RPI top 25: 2-9. vs. RPI top 100: 5-12 Resume peak: Huge Big 12 Tournament win vs. Kansas. Road win at Kansas State. Home wins vs. Iowa State, Illinois State. Resume valley: Serious lack of Top 100 wins, which is probably inexcusable in that league with a ton of opportunities. Bad non-con SOS (Pom 240-plus). Ended regular season on seven-game losing streak

Need a miracle …

Indiana (18-15): Pom/RPI: 41/80. vs. RPI top 25: 2-5. vs. RPI top 100: 7-13 Shred of hope: Win vs. Northwestern kept the light flickering and looked great in B10 tournament vs. Iowa, but still just 5-8 since OG Anunoby was lost for the year to injuryMississippi (20-13): Pom/RPI: 77/75. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 3-13 Shred of hope: No really bad losses. Beat South Carolina in regular-season finale. Iowa (18-14): Pom/RPI: 70/81. vs. RPI top 25: 2-4. vs. RPI top 100: 7-11 Shred of hope: Won at Maryland and at Wisconsin in four-game winning streak to end season. But … blown out by Indiana in must-have B10 tournament opener.Houston (21-10): Pom/RPI: 49/5. vs. RPI top 25: 0-4. vs. RPI top 100: 3-7 Shred of hope: Decent computer numbers, but loss in AAC Tournament to UConn ended any realistic expectation.